On Popery

I'm no longer a Catholic, but the doings of the Catholic Church have always been of special interest to me. Technically, Pope John Paul II's is the third papacy of my lifetime, but Paul VI and John Paul I both died (or were killed) before I was a year old, so John Paul II is the only Pope I've ever known.

His reign has been among the longest of any Pope, and certainly the most travelled. He has been hailed for his missionary spirit as he circled the globe, and he has been reviled for his consistent refusal to reform policies the church (in my humble opinion, which no longer counts) should have abandoned years ago.

At this writing, he is on the verge of death, and will likely not last more than a few days. So what's next for the Catholic Church?

Well, first of all, the college of cardinals will fly to Rome to assemble for a Papal Conclave. John Paul II has reigned for so long now that only a dozen or so of the cardinals have held the office long enough to have prior conclave experience. In addition, cardinals who are 80 years old or older can't participate, so that brings the number down to 3. They are:

• Bernardin Cardinal Gantin of Benin
• Jaime Lachica Cardinal Sin of the Phillipines
• William Wakefield Cardinal Baum of the United States

But anyway, they will all gather in the Sistine chapel, the doors will be locked, and they'll elect the new guy there. Who will he be? Usually the cardinals go for someone who they believe will not rock the boat too much, that is, someone like them. Most of them, of course, were appointed to their post by John Paul II, and so their views will match the current pope's views. So we can likely expect a pope that will carry on the status quo. However, occasionally we have been surprised by the actions a pope takes once the office is established.

John XXIII is probably my favorite pope of recent memory. In 1958, Pope Pius XII died, and the long-held favorite to take over the job, Archbishop Montini of Milan, was consistently denied his red hat by Pius XII, so he was not elected. John XXIII was considered to be a safe choice for a short papacy (he was almost 77 years old); he presumably would make Archbishop Montini a cardinal, who would then take over the job after John XXIII's death. Montini did become Pope Paul VI in 1963. But in the meantime, to the surprise of everyone and likely the chagrin of the cardinals, Good Pope John established the Second Vatican Council, revolutionizing the Mass and bringing the church into the modern world.

So anything could happen. The next pope could be a revolutionary in disguise, or he could be another steward with no plans for change. The next few months will be interesting indeed for the Catholic church.